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Optimization of numerical weather model parameterizations for solar irradiance prediction in the tropics
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Document Title
Optimization of numerical weather model parameterizations for solar irradiance prediction in the tropics
Author
Harada D. Chinnavornrungsee P. Kittisontirak S. Chollacoop N. Songtrai S. Sriprapha K. Yoshino J. Kobayashi T.
Affiliations
JR Central Consultants Company Japan; National Energy Technology Center (ENTEC) Thailand; National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC) Thailand; Gifu University Japan
Type
Article
Source Title
Japanese Journal of Applied Physics
ISSN
214922
Year
2023
Volume
62
Issue
SK
Open Access
All Open Access Bronze
Publisher
Institute of Physics
DOI
10.35848/1347-4065/acd9b5
Abstract
Many photovoltaic (PV) systems are connected to electrical power grids and the grids are at risk of instability due to fluctuation of PV output. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used to forecast solar irradiance and proper grid management. NWP usually has many physical parameterization options and appropriate schemes of these options should be selected for accurate forecasting. The options should be determined by regional and climatic conditions and other factors. The target country is Thailand which is in the tropics. In Thailand cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds frequently appear and their behavior makes weather forecasting difficult. The optimal combination of schemes in the tropics is determined through a sensitivity analysis of the options. By the optimization the forecasting accuracy increases from 0.773 to 0.814 of the correlation coefficient. It is also found that surface layer and PBL processes make a significant contribution to the improvement of accuracy. ? 2023 The Japan Society of Applied Physics.
License
Copyright
Publication Source
WOS