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Probability prediction of solar irradiance in the tropic using ensemble forecasting
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Document Title
Probability prediction of solar irradiance in the tropic using ensemble forecasting
Author
Harada D. Moriai N. Chinnavornrungsee P. Kittisontirak S. Chollacoop N. Songtrai S. Sriprapha K. Yoshino J. Kobayashi T.
Affiliations
JR Central Consultants Company Japan; Gifu University Japan; National Energy Technology Center (ENTEC) Thailand; National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC) Thailand
Type
Article
Source Title
Japanese Journal of Applied Physics
ISSN
214922
Year
2023
Volume
62
Issue
SK
Open Access
All Open Access Bronze
Publisher
Institute of Physics
DOI
10.35848/1347-4065/acdf68
Abstract
As photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems become more widespread the instability of electric power grids with PV connection is becoming an issue. For appropriate management of the grids probability prediction of solar irradiance is proposed. The lagged average forecasting method is used for ensemble forecasting. The 72 h ahead forecasting of solar irradiance is operated in Thailand once a day and it contains intraday next-day and 2-day ahead forecasts. Ensemble forecasting has three ensemble members. The accuracy of intraday forecasting is higher than that of the other members and it is employed as the most probable value of the forecast. The relation between spreads and forecasting errors is analyzed. From the result the confidence intervals of the predictions are derived for an arbitrary confidence level. The probability prediction is performed with the most probable value and the confidence intervals. The interval changes its width due to spread changes and captures the observation in it. ? 2023 The Japan Society of Applied Physics.
License
Copyright
Publication Source
WOS